New York Times

Mary Jane Lavoie is no stranger to colleges going out of business. 

Two years ago, she was the last registrar at Bradford College in Massachusetts, which shut its doors three years short of its 200th anniversary. Now, as the registrar of Notre Dame College here, she is going through the same sad routine, sending hundreds of transcripts to colleges for students seeking a new home, writing recommendations for colleagues looking for jobs and finding storage for records accumulated over 50 years.

"How can I get into this situation again?" said Ms. Lavoie, 41. "Shouldn't I be able to find myself a job from which I can retire?"

Bradford and Notre Dame Colleges are not isolated cases. At least 27 of the nation's 1,600 private colleges — many important in their regions, a few known more widely — have announced plans to close since January 1997, a 35 percent increase from the previous five-year period.

Dozens more are in precarious financial situations and may face closing if the economy does not improve. Some of these, like Marymount College Tarrytown, north of New York City, have chosen to merge with stronger competitors. Some, like Franklin Pierce College in Rindge, N.H., have sought loans many times larger than their modest assets to spruce up their campuses in hopes of attracting students.

Morton O. Schapiro, the president of Williams College in Massachusetts and an economist of higher education, said many of these private colleges offered the small classes and intimate settings unavailable in larger public institutions nearby.

"Every time you lose one of those jewels, it's unfortunate," he said. "It's like Wal-Mart opens up on the highway, and the mom-and-pop store around the corner closes."

The economy is not the only reason for the straits of many colleges. The more marginal private colleges have been losing students to cheaper public institutions, and women's and religious colleges have been hurt by other societal factors.

The private college market has shifted, becoming much more national than even a decade ago, hurting many regional colleges. High school graduates in the 1980's might have chosen regional colleges because of family or religious affiliations or simply to stay close to home, but young people today are less inclined to do so. The Internet has contributed by making it easier to learn about colleges far from home.

To be sure, top liberal arts colleges like Williams and Amherst are not facing financial crises. Endowed with hundreds of millions of dollars each, they are in control of their destinies. But of the roughly 500 private liberal arts colleges, fewer than 50 are in such secure positions, said a recent study by Mr. Schapiro and Michael S. McPherson, another economist of higher education. Most have very small endowments or none.

David Breneman, an economics professor at the University of Virginia who is a leading analyst of the finances of higher education, said most private liberal arts colleges charged tuition of $15,000 to $25,000, lower than Ivy League tuition but much higher than tuition at public universities. "There are not enough families who are willing to pay the prices these schools ask for," he said.

The odds are stacked against private liberal arts colleges, the experts say. "Most of the rising demographic demand generated by Baby Boom 2 is being absorbed by public universities and community colleges," said John Nelson, a vice president at Moody's Investors Service. "The competition from the public sector is a lot more intense." Fifty years ago, half of college students went to private institutions. Today, less than one-fifth do.

Mary Peloquin-Dodd, who analyzes the college and university market for Standard & Poor's, said teenagers today choose colleges differently from the way their parents or grandparents did.

"The students are more savvy," she said. "They are looking for things that cost more money. They want apartments instead of dorms. They want physical facilities — buildings, gyms, computers — that are the state of the art."

But most liberal arts colleges, unlike the big public and elite private institutions, cannot afford large-scale construction or periodic computer upgrades.

To win over more students, many of these regional colleges offer large scholarships, which cut into tuition income. In the meantime, the popularity of liberal arts majors has declined. In 1969, about half of all college degrees awarded were in liberal arts. The figure dwindled to less than 40 percent in the 1970's and is about 25 percent today.

To survive, many small colleges are redesigning their curriculums and redefining their missions. The College of St. Mary in Omaha has set aside an entire dormitory for students who are single mothers, even offering day care.

But the room for error is small, the economists say, and one misstep can push a college under. Bradford closed its doors after a new dormitory failed to attract a bigger enrollment.

Ms. Lavoie, the registrar at Notre Dame College, is not the only one reliving the pain of a college's demise. Kerry Phipps, a Notre Dame junior, attended Trinity College in Burlington, Vt., for her freshman year and afterward learned it was closing. This time, the end is not as sudden, so she can at least say goodbye to professors and classmates.

"I bought a Notre Dame class ring," she said. "I really wanted to graduate from here."

The seniors here are more worried about the lack of an alma mater. "You know how you want to come back to your school and show your kids," said Jimmie Denwiddie, a senior on scholarship who has majored in business management. "I am getting a business degree from a school that goes out of business."

Few of the 62 members of Notre Dame's faculty have found jobs, and the future does not look rosy.

No one has bought the Georgian-style campus of Bradford in the quaint town with which it shares its name. Thick dust has settled on dormitory lamps, desks and beds. Salt and pepper shakers, half full, still sit on dining hall tables.

"It feels like the school were just on a break," said Kristen Hollenbeck, a fund-raiser who runs Bradford's alumni organization, as she sauntered recently on the empty campus. "It feels like next week the kids would all be coming back."